“Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions” in North America

Introduction.

On October 03, 2023, the United Nations Security Council finally agreed to send peacekeepers to Haiti to quell rampant gang violence that has brought the country to its knees. In Mexico, a recent paper concluded that if the nation’s narco cartels were ‘formal employers’, it would be the fifth largest employer in the country. In the United States, as of September 30, there were 487 mass shootings; roughly 1.7 mass shootings per day.

For this month’s briefing, we are going to address one of the thornier topics thus far. The 16^th Global Goal of “Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions”, is understood to be not only a goal in of itself, but also an enabler for the other 16 Goals. Within this complex and controversial theme, our focus currently is on “reducing violence everywhere” as measured by the number of intentional homicides per 100,000 people in North America.

Let’s take a step back to remember why this high-level goal is so important in the first place.

Inclusive societies. Lasting peace. Strong and non-corrupt institutions. Fair justice and equality in the eyes of the law. For many of our readers, these are facts of life and often taken for granted. For much of the world, that is far from a lived reality. Around 1 billion people, or around 12% of humanity, live in places impacted directly by conflict or violence.

It’s a global problem, but a lot worse in North America.

As we turn our attention back to the rate of intentional homicides, let’s start big.

Global

464,000. The number of people killed in international homicides, the highest rate in 20 years (in 2021).
6.1. The global rate per 100,000 people that were killed by intentional homicide.
81%. The proportion of homicide victims that were male.
$1.1 trillion. The global economic impact of homicide in 2022, or 6.6% of global GDP.

Regional

2/3. The share of homicides that occurred in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
19.1. The regional rate in North America per 100,000 people that were killed by international homicide.

One thing stands out. While intentional homicides are indeed a global phenomenon, it is impossible to ignore just how much worse it is in a North American context. Take a look at Figure 1. Of the top 10 countries on earth ranked by intentional homicide rates, 8 of them are in North America.

Background and recent trends.

The long arch of history.

Despite how it may feel sometimes, according to most major indicators, there has never been a better time to be alive. Across all measures, whether it’s war, disease, mortality rate, life span, everything has improved. We are living in the golden era of human history.

Thank your lucky stars you don’t live in Italy in the 1400s.

Compare that with if you found yourself living in the 1400s, trust in your fellow neighbour would be somewhat on shaky ground (which could help explain why neighbours fit so prominently in the 10 commandments). While robust data is lacking at best, current estimates put the global rate of homicides peaking at 73 per 100,000 people in 1450. To put that in perspective, that’s 11x worse than 2021. While we’re making progress on a civilization level, it still feels like a lot of work remains when focusing within a human lifetime.

Pent up tension never did anyone any good.

In the last 30 years, while significant gains have been made, progress for the 16^th Goal has either stalled or regressed most recently. With a peak of homicides in 2021, it is estimated that all forms of violence could actually increase by 10-46% by 2030. While it would be unfair to lay all the blame on one factor in particular, coming out of the pandemic there has been a noticeable uptick which some researchers attribute to the economic consequences of COVID-related restrictions, as well as gang violence.

Theory

What is an intentional homicide?

To start, we can determine what it is not:

Accidental homicide;
Armed conflict;
Judicial executions;
Suicide;
Terrorism;
War.

Rather, intentional homicide is “the unlawful death inflicted upon a person with the intent to cause death or serious injury”. With this definition in mind and looking at the numbers, you’re much more likely to be killed by someone you know.

What are its dimensions?

To have a birds-eye view of the situation, we’ve examined intentional homicide on three dimensions: economic, gender, and geography/climate.

More Money, More Problems?

According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), regions that experience high levels of economic disparity and inequality are four times more likely to experience homicides. While not the only factor, it is an important one to bear in mind and a useful shorthand as it is easily quantifiable, and measurable over time.

In terms of measuring economic disparity, the simplest measure is the Gini coefficient which measures the inequality of income distribution with a score of 0-1, 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality. Another way of thinking of that score would be 0 meaning every person in the country has the exact same amount of money, while 1 would mean 1 person had all the money in the country.

In the North American context, we find that 12 countries have a score of 0.38 or higher. This does not sound like much, but when we recall the findings of the UNODC, it partially explains why North America and Latin America experience such high rates of homicide. Compared that with Canada which comes in at 30.3 whereas Norway and Finland are comfortably in the 20s. Vast differences are hidden in these numbers. This is all the more striking when looking at Figure 2 and seeing that not only does Canada enjoy the lowest levels of income inequality, but also the lowest levels of homicide rates in North America at 2.07%.

A final point is the economic cost. As mentioned above, homicides directly cost the global economy roughly 6.6 of annual GDP. There are also indirect costs such as all the public resources for security that could have been directed elsewhere such as health and education.

Men need to be better.

A second dimension that deserves much attention is the role of gender. 81% of all victims of homicide are men. This is usually a crime on men perpetrated by men and the result of aggressive circumstances outside of the home. This is a genuine male epidemic.

If addressed properly, actions taken today could save the lives of tens of thousands of (generally) young men every year; men that could have otherwise had the chance to lead productive lives in society. This tragic loss of life leads to a great number of fathers and sons that have been robbed of the prime of their lives.

Then there is the other 19% that women make up, of which, 56% are killed by intimate partners or family members. A home should be a place of safety and security. For many women, it could be the most dangerous place in the world.

A changing climate will make things a lot worse.

A final consideration is that of a changing climate. As we have addressed at length in previous briefings, climate change is not something we have to worry about in the future – it’s already here.

Over the last 60 years, over 40% of all conflicts were in some way related to natural resources. Humanity’s reliance on the natural world and the changing nature of climate is complex, global, and interconnected. On a macro level, climate change has already led to significant political unrest with the Arab spring in part tied to poor grain harvests leading up to the revolutions.

On a more local level, when individuals are caught in a perceived zero-sum situation competing over the same local natural resource, tempers will inevitably flare; this is especially true in rural areas where farmers and herders are often at odds.

In the years ahead, this will become even more of a priority area for policymakers. With the changing climate, some think tanks estimate that up to 1.2 billion people may have to give up their homes in search of a better life elsewhere and further away from the equator in effect becoming climate refugees. This could then potentially lead to an uptick in homicides in the future if not properly managed.

So what can be done?

When looking back at the 3 dimensions above, a few solutions present themselves. Below, they are broken down into short, medium, and long-term solutions.

Short-term.

As the majority of intentional homicides against women occur in the home or by people they know, more money and support needs to go into programs designed specifically for supporting women. This can include a combination of women-only support shelters, investing in social workers, hotlines for women to privately reach out to, or even as simply as taking their concerns seriously. These programs are often some of the least expensive and can start saving women in dangerous circumstances as soon as today.

Medium-term

The second is targeting men and promoting economic opportunities. Many men find themselves, especially in North America, drawn to gangs and other dangerous circumstances because of the lack of alternatives in the job market. For example, a recent study in Mexico showed that if efforts were directed towards targeting potential future recruits to the cartels and providing them stable jobs, the numbers operating within cartels would fall by over 100,000 by 2027. Less disenfranchised men on the streets will inevitably lead to less men-on-men intentional homicides.

Long-term

Potentially the most important policy lever is a fairer system of progressive taxation. However, there are two downsides to this solution. One, taxes are generally unpopular. Two, the benefits will only be seen in the decades ahead. However, given the strong relationship between income inequality and homicides, policymakers would be turning their backs on a safer future if they were to not seriously consider the option.

Finally, as the climate continues to change in the years to come, it will be important to engage with people in the most vulnerable areas to support them now. Actions taken today, such as managing resources more responsibly or building more adaptive infrastructure will prevent long-term suffering.

If you would like to get in touch with Holocene and learn more about our geopolitical risk capabilities, contact us at [email protected]